Literature such as “The Bitcoin Standard” is essential when learning the fundamentals of Bitcoin. But prolific portfolio management needs constant updates and latest research to improve. What does financial science and top firms have to say about Bitcoin?
Here is a list of some of the best reports on Bitcoin ever written.
Adamant Capital: Bitcoin in Heavy Accumulation
We pride ourselves in having published our 2012 and 2015 Bitcoin reports during what we perceived as periods of significant undervaluation. Each report was issued when Bitcoin was down more than 80% from all-time highs.
Now, at 75% below its 2017 all-time high, we believe the current bear market represents an exceptional opportunity for value investors. During this accumulation phase, we expect for Bitcoin to trade in a range of $3,000 to $6,500, until the new bull market permanently cements the denarian cryptocurrency as a multi-trillion dollar asset class.
Some highlights of this report:
• Blockchain analysis suggests Bitcoin whales are now accumulating
• Significant parallels with the 2014-15 bear market have emerged
• HODLers almost break-even, with est. aggregate losses of $3 billion
• Recent volatility lows suggest retail apathy, market bottoming
• Demand shocks still possible from exchange hacks, miner capitulation
• Bitcoin’s secular bull market is supported by strong fundamentals
Vijay Boyapati – The Bullish Case for Bitcoin
“With the price of a bitcoin surging to new highs in 2017, the bullish case for investors might seem so obvious it does not need stating. Alternatively it may seem foolish to invest in a digital asset that isn’t backed by any commodity or government and whose price rise has prompted some to compare it to the tulip mania or the dot-com bubble. Neither is true; the bullish case for Bitcoin is compelling but far from obvious. There are significant risks to investing in Bitcoin, but, as I will argue, there is still an immense opportunity.”
Unchained Capital – HODL wave
Bitcoin uses a curious accounting structure called a UTXO — an Unspent Transaction Output. All UTXOs are timestamped by the transaction/block in which they were created. Since all bitcoin in existence is contained in some UTXO, this means that all bitcoins have an age: not the age/time when that bitcoin was first mined, but when it was last used in a transaction.
Since Bitcoin stores its full transaction history in the blockchain, it is possible to look backwards and analyze the age distribution of UTXOs over time. Unchained Capital first analyzed Bitcoin’s UTXO history a few years ago and what we learned encouraged us to start our crypto-lending product. We are now sharing our analyses publicly because we think they are fascinating and informative.
The following chart displays the age distribution of Bitcoin’s UTXO set historically back to the genesis block (Note: this chart does not display correctly on mobile devices.)
The Bitcoin Standard Research
After the publication of The Bitcoin Standard, Dr. Ammous started writing a monthly research bulletin to subscribers in which he applies the analytical framework of the book to studying more complex questions about the economics of bitcoin. These papers are now available for purchase, and they form the basis for the ECO31 online course offered by Dr. Ammous on this website. To stay informed of new publications by Dr. Ammous, sign up to the mailing list at the bottom of this page.
Dollar Cost Averaging — Does It Really Work — Bitcoin Case Study
Since dollar cost averaging has a psychological advantage over buy at once and it’s a close call as to whether we are now in a green or red period, I think on balance dollar cost averaging is still the choice for me as of today (5th April 2019). The recent unexpected rise on 2nd and 3rd April also calls for caution and adds to the case for using dollar cost averaging in case that unwinds.
In closing here is a summary of what I learned:
- Most (but not all) of the time you get better future returns if you buy bitcoin all at once rather than dollar cost average.
- However dollar cost averaging does work better if you are buying during a bear market or if the price is already some way up a large vertical rise.
- Dollar cost averaging is psychologically easier so if in doubt then rather dollar cost average and be happy.
Incrementum Crypto Research Report
Incrementum publishes quarterly one of the most comprehensive crypto studies worldwide. Here you can download the latest version for free. The latest “Crypto Research Report” was published in April 2019.
- Comprehensive quarterly research report on cryptocurrencies and cryptorelated capital market developments
- Critical analysis and holistic view of currently relevant events
- Volume: 50 to 80 pages
- Benchmark work for readers with an interest in cryptocurrencies
- Available in German and English
- Published for the first time in December 2017
Bitcoin is a Demographic Mega-Trend: Data Analysis
What follows is data and analysis from a survey of American adults regarding general sentiment toward Bitcoin — the survey was conducted online by The Harris Poll, on behalf of Blockchain Capital, from April 23–25, 2019 among 2,029 American adults. The survey was an augmented version of one we ran in October 2017 (we added a few questions). Methodology can be found at the bottom of this post.
Lightning is Only the Beginning: The Emerging Bitcoin Stack
However, if Bitcoin becomes the multi-trillion-dollar asset that we think it will become, Lightning is only the beginning. As the number of building blocks grows, the number of unique combinations from that suite of building blocks grows exponentially and the probability of useful combinations of those building blocks increases significantly.
After all, Bitcoin is programmable money — and while it remains to be seen *what exactly* people will create up the stack, I have no doubt that human ingenuity coupled with an open permissionless network of programmable money will create incredible functionality that delivers compelling utility to holders and users.